That was on Monday. Meanwhile, I had made several outreaches to find the real Caitlin, and waited all week hoping to hear back from one of them. I still wasn't sure if the woman pictured above was really part of a scam. On Friday, I got a call from a number I had found for a business attached to Caitlin's name. When the caller told me she was Caitlin, it was a nice verification that I had protected a stranger from a scammer. She explained that she had been on the phone with her bank for three hours. She cancelled the check and got her money back and so I tore up the check and threw it in the trash. That was April Fools Day, no joke!
Supply and Demand
read somewhere that the spike happens before the halving. What that means is that lots of people are going to be buying extra bitcoin because they know that in the first half of July, the production of bitcoins will be cut in half, and all that buying will spike the price. Maybe that prediction will come true. It has the nice property of being self-fulfilling, but there are central bankers
on this planet.
Some miners might declare bankruptcy, like KnCMiner just did
, or go out of business altogether. However, if you've ever read The Driver
or this other book
that borrowed a lot from it, then you know that appearances can be deceiving, and understanding the underlying economics can provide immense profits.
The fact is that mining bitcoin is supported primarily by the sale of the bitcoin it produces, and a little bit by the bitcoins it earns by getting transactions into the blockchain. The cost of mining can only ever temporarily exceed the revenue it generates, and then it returns to "normal." Either the cost will fall, or the revenue will increase. Lowering the cost is an ongoing endeavor that requires research and work, but raising the revenue just means charging more for the bitcoin you sell. When I stop selling bitcoin, many of my customers pay more, and that raises the price. The same is true for everyone else who sells bitcoin, including the miners. Some miners will stop, and some will sell less, but just about none of them is going to start selling more near the halving, at least not until and unless the price goes up. Constrained supply, as bitcoin will have in July, is a problem that solves itself.