A Message from Alexander Höptner, CEO of BitMEX

Crypto markets ebb and flow - sometimes gracefully, other times violently. Some people are born to thrive in the volatility - others just want to sit back and drink a cool one while the number (hopefully) goes up.

If you’re the latter, you might ask yourself how you might construct a portfolio that weathers even the most calamitous of days. You’ll find some examples in this essay - and some predictions by Arthur backed up by macro thought and analysis - that are uncharacteristically bearish (in the short term). 

History has a tendency to repeat itself. In this week’s Crypto Trader Digest, Arthur shares what assets he’s selling off, and which ones he’s HODLing. Don’t skip this one, fellow crypto traders. 

- Alex (@AlexHoeptner)

From the Desk of Arthur Hayes

One of the most destructive mental constructs to the health of your financial portfolio is measuring yearly arithmetic returns. The goal, as always, is to maintain or increase the purchasing power of your assets relative to the cost of energy. Human civilisation essentially converts the potential energy of the Sun and Earth into kinetic energy that supports our bodily functions and modern lifestyle. Making money is not the goal, because money is just an energy abstraction. The correct – and admittedly difficult to track – means of measuring your financial success is determining how many barrels of oil your lifestyle costs now and how many it will cost in the future. Then you must ensure the value of your financial savings increases faster than your expected energy consumption.

The markets don’t stop just because the clock ticked 12:01 AM on 1 January 2022. Returns are compound and path-dependent in nature. Unfortunately, there are only a few trading days that actually matter. A simple example will illustrate this point.

Travel back to 1 January 2020, when the world was a simpler place and the global coronavirus madness had not yet taken hold. Bitcoin fetched $7,216. The last day of that fine year, Bitcoin commanded a price of $28,996. The YoY arithmetic return was 302%. Who made more, Bitcoin investors or Pfizer?

Latest Commentary from BitMEX

These users, plus active existing traders, will be airdropped BMEX by 1 February.
Following the launch of BMEX token on December 21, we’ve welcomed 50,000 new users – a sign of tremendous interest in BMEX and the growth of our ecosystem. These users will be among the first to be airdropped our highly-awaited BMEX token by 1 February. 
BMEX is not being offered to U.S. Persons and is not available in the United States and in other specified jurisdictions.

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