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Good Afternoon -

(1) The Calendar

We have highlighted a few shifts in the 2020 primary calendar recently, updated *tentative* 2020 map is below.

(2) Polls, Polls, Polls

Quinnipiac - California | July 10-July 15 | 519 RV | +/- 5.7

Harris 23
Biden 21
Sanders 18
Warren 16
Buttigieg 3
Yang 2
[All other candidates received one percent or less]

(2) $$$

We reported on Q2 FEC numbers yesterday. Now we want to look at the difference between Q1 and Q2 numbers. Below is a chart of the percent candidates increased (yay) or decreased (gulp) in contributions. 

The Des Moines register reports that presidential campaigns spent almost $2.2M in Iowa in Q2 and almost 50% of that spending came from Sanders, O’Rourke, and Delaney.

Sanders | $443k
O’Rourke | $300k
Delaney | $259k

Per Axios, Castro leads with small dollar donors:

ActBlue, the online Democratic fundraising platform, reported that over 3.3 million donors have contributed $420 million in Q1 and Q2 of 2019.

Per the Miami Herald, Democrats raised $3.8 million in Florida during Q2, of which $2.09 million was raised by Biden.

The Washington Post examines how candidates are raising and spending money thus far. 

(3) Debates & Forums

We have our 20 candidates for the second DNC debate in Detroit, MI on July 30th and July 31st. The lineup will be match the first debate, except that Bullock will take the place of Swalwell now that the California congressman has abandoned his presidential bid. The DNC will officially invite candidates to participate in the second debate today and tomorrow, CNN will host the live drawing to determine the night one and night two line-up.

For many it may be their last time on the debate stage. By our count, 5 candidates have qualified thus far for debates three and four.

Yesterday Castor, Gillibrand, and Harris spoke at the AARP/Des Moines Register candidate forum

Ahead of yesterday’s forum, Castro marched with Fight for 15 demonstrators.

Gillibrand addressed workers outside the forum and promised to fight for a $15 minimum wage.

Ryan, Gabbard, Delaney, and Bennet are participating in today’s round of the AARP/Des Moines Register forum.

(4) Endorsements 

The Center for Popular Democracy Action is starting to do outreach to the candidates for their endorsement This will be the first time this organization endorses in the presidential primary. 

(5) Policy

Biden released his Plan for Rural America. The plan aims to create a pathway to the middle class for rural Americans by:

  • Revitalizing rural economies through strengthening the agricultural sector by pursuing a policy that works for American farmers, expand the Obama-Biden microloan program to support beginning farmers, fostering the development of regional food systems
  • Partner with rural communities to help them fully access federal resources by creating a White House “Strikeforce” to partner with rural communities to help them access federal funds and prioritize persistent poverty rural communities.

  • Protect and build on the ACA to improve access to quality healthcare in rural communities including targeted work to keep rural hospitals open and expanding primary care and innovative health care delivery models.

(6) The Vote

Politico looks at Booker’s polling numbers with African Americans in South Carolina and Castro’s polling numbers with Latinxs in Nevada - neither are polling well. aren’t polling well

(7) Trump

Trump is holding a MAGA rally in North Carolina. 

Trump’s 2020 campaign launched Women for Trump in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania yesterday.

(8) Other News 

Now that he’s blamed the media for where he stands in the election he’s taking off the gloves -- Sanders went after Biden in an interview with the Washington Post

Warren’s campaign told the Washington Post they have at least 300 staffers with 60% based in the early 4 states. This means that they at least 120 staffers in states that vote after the Early 4 (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina will all vote in February). This is important almost 70% of all available pledged delegates will be allocated by the close of March. 

“Mayor de Blasio, do your job. Fire these officers.” - Gwen Carr, Eric Garner’s Mother after the Department of Justice ordered the case against the cop that killed Eric Garner to be dropped

Former SCOTUS Justice John Paul Stevens, the third-longest serving justice in U.S. Supreme Court history died yesterday. You may remember Stevens as being a vocal dissenter in Bush v. Gore and the notorious Citizen United case. 

From Bush v. Gore: “Time will one day heal the wound to that confidence that will be inflicted by today’s decision. One thing, however, is certain. Although we may never know with complete certainty the identity of the winner of this year’s presidential election, the identity of the loser is perfectly clear. It is the Nation’s confidence in the judge as an impartial guardian of the rule of law.”

Candidate Update:

The Biden Cancer Initiative suspended their operations

Booker has added New Hampshire State Representative Peter Leishman to his running list of Granite State endorsements. 

Booker penned an op-ed in ESSENCE: Cory Booker on Trump’s Racist Attacks And How We Fail Women Of Color

Buttigieg will be back in Iowa on July 20th.

Castro will be back in New Hampshire July 18th-July 19th. Among his announced events, Castro will hold a conversation around his housing platform, meet with high school Democrats, and join a protest against migrant detention centers at the southern US border. 

Gillibrand went to the Senate floor today to call for unanimous consent to pass the 9/11 VCF bill. Senator Paul was the sole Senator to object and block the bill.

Harris picked up the support of Iowa Representative Phyllis Thede. 

Hickenlooper is in New Hampshire today.

Klobuchar delivered a speech on her first 100 days agenda yesterday in DC where she echoed FDR’s call for “direct, vigorous action.”

Moulton once again decided to come at Nancy Pelosi. Please don’t forget when he tried this in 2018 and missed. 

Ryan will campaign in Illinois and Iowa on July 17th.

Warren called out Puerto Rican Governor Ricardo Rossello.


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Hindsight 2020 · 25 E 78th St · New York, NY 10075-0102 · USA

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