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This Week on SciCast
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This Week on SciCast

News from one of the largest science and technology focused collaborative forecasting efforts, ever.


About SciCast
Do a deep dive into the research that is supporting SciCast in our bibliography.
Q & A with a SciCast Topic Leader, Andrea Castillo

Q: How did you get involved as a SciCast Topic Leader?

A: I got involved with SciCast after some of my colleagues at George Mason University contacted me and my other colleagues at the Mercatus Center to help them brainstorm some interesting Bitcoin questions for the prediction market. Since we at Mercatus have been doing Bitcoin research for about a year now, and are big fans of prediction markets, we were happy to provide our input. After hearing a presentation by Dan and Anamaria, I volunteered to serve as the Topic Leader for the newly-created "Cryptocurrency" topic.

Q: What does that entail?

A: I dedicate around 1-2 hours every other day to creating, inputting, and formatting questions. I have a long list of questions that I developed with my Mercatus Center colleagues that I am constantly updating - the Bitcoin world moves fast! I also check in with SciCast editors to ensure that the questions are clear and structured correctly. It takes more careful thought than you might expect, but it's well worth it.

Q: What do you find most interesting about SciCast?

A: I really love the idea of prediction markets and enjoy seeing what kinds of information on which participants are willing to "bet" with their SciCast points. I hope that the SciCast experiment can provide enough evidence of the social benefits of community prediction markets so that we can eventually extend their use to more areas so that we can access better information.

Q: When you're not helping us manage our forecast question lifecycle, what do you do with your time? 

A: I work as a research associate at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. I focus on a range of economic policies: including budget and fiscal policy, specific spending programs like the Ex-Im Bank and various social safety net policies, and of course: Bitcoin! I am a part time PhD student at George Mason and when I get some free time, I write a column for an online magazine started by some of my friends, The Umlaut. When all of that is done, I like to spend some quality time with my boyfriend and my little pug puppy, Fritz.

Q: Anything you'd like to add?

A: Keep on betting, predictors! Talk is cheap, but SciCast lets you put your points where your mouth is :)
Propose a question or become a topic leader.

Movers & Shakers


What will be the Bitcoin / US Dollar exchange rate at the end of April 2014?

All of the Malaysian Airlines questions

And, check out the new MH370 question just added:
Will Bluefin-21 locate the black box from Malaysian Airlines flight MH-370?
See all Bitcoin questions.
New Forecasting Questions This Week

Will the number of US patents granted in 2014 using the term 'virtual model(s)' in their title or abstract be greater than the number of US patents granted in 2013 using the same term?

How many cities worldwide will have at least one Bitcoin exchanger on December 31, 2014?

Will there be at least one female winner of a Fields Medal in 2014?
See the newest questions.
Actively Traded Forecasting Questions Last Week

Will SpaceX achieve a soft landing at sea with its resusable Falcon 9 rocket booster after resupplying the International Space Station?

Will Facebook and/or Twitter be available in China's Shanghai Free Trade Zone before June 2014?

Will there be at least one major hurricane that makes US landfall in the 2014 hurricane season?
Make a forecast on one of the questions ending soon!
SciCast is based on the idea that the collective wisdom of an informed and diverse group is often a better predictor than the judgment of a single expert. 
 

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