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This Week on SciCast
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This Week on SciCast

News from one of the largest science and technology focused collaborative forecasting efforts, ever.


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SciCast College Bowl kicks off tomorrow, April 29 at 9am ET!


Forecast the future of science and technology correctly and have the opportunity to win thousands of dollars in prizes. For more information and to enter, visit https://scicast.org/collegebowl

And... We're giving everyone more points

Q & A with a SciCast Predict and Spark User, Sam Lockhart

Q: How did you find SciCast?

A: I subscribe to Science Magazine and received a bulletin about SciCast via e-mail. I was intrigued, followed the link and registered!

Q: What are your research interests?

A: My principal research interest is delineating the cellular and molecular mechanisms underlying diabetes complications. Specifically, I am interested in how insulin signaling regulates endothelial function and how these mechanistic insights can be applied to develop therapies that can counter endothelial dysfunction in people with diabetes. I am also interested in how diabetes and other chronic diseases impact on peoples’ lives and how psychological distress can impact upon a person's ability to manage their illness. As such I am beginning a project that hopes to describe the determinants of diabetes distress in a population in Belfast and describing how this impacts upon glycemic control. 

Q: How do you plan to use SciCast Predict and Spark?

A: I am a fourth year medical student at Queen's University Belfast and, as such, I am at a very early stage in my career. In my opinion, SciCast has the potential to provide a real-time forum within which to engage with leading researchers. It allows me to examine how they think in terms of likelihood when confronted with new ideas. I am aware my inexperience may lead me to overstate the implications of research findings and SciCast gives me an opportunity to examine to what extent, if at all, I need to temper my enthusiasm to provide objective analyses by comparing my feelings on a topic with the opinions of leaders in the field. 

Moreover, as an aspiring academic clinician, SciCast offers a space within which I can broadcast the implications of my future work and can gather feedback in real-time from a group of experts from a variety of fields. Not only would this add expertise, it would allow me to gather insight from highly skilled people who would be looking at my research with “fresh eyes.”


Q: Have you authored any questions? Which?

A: To date I have authored one SciCast question in the general medicine category. The question is: I had been looking for something to post for a while to try and get a feel for how SciCast worked and I came across this study by Li et al., It seemed like a nice topic to look at as there was some basic science evidence that Sildenafil could, in theory, enhance the pathogenicity of melanoma cells and this study had provided some evidence that sildenafil use is associated with an increased risk of developing melanoma. For someone who is primarily interested in using SciCast as a tool for developing their own critical thinking I thought this question was perfect as it requires one to synthesize information from both basic science and epidemiological studies and then provide a weighted judgment based on that evidence. To me it’s intriguing data, but perhaps I’m too easily excited. Expert users on SciCast can help me figure out if my intrigue is justified!

Q: What do you do in your spare time?

A: Science takes up a fair bit of my spare time but I also enjoy playing rugby, going to the gym and reading. 

Q: Anything you’d like to add? 

A: I would just like to encourage everyone who's using SciCast at the minute to get their friends, colleagues, relatives, etc. on board! There is something online to interest everyone and the utility of SciCast will grow exponentially as its membership expands!
Propose a question.

Movers & Shakers

How close will the closest near Earth object that is tracked by NASA come to Earth between April 1st and May 30th 2014?
 
See trend data for this question below:


Will U.S. wind energy consumption exceed 1.6 quadrillion BTU in 2014?

Will there be at least one major hurricane that makes US landfall in the 2014 hurricane season?
See the questions that have closed.
New Forecasting Questions This Week

Heartbleed questions

Will Google incorporate infrared vision into future Google Glass models by the end of 2017?

Which NASA Z-2 spacesuit design will have the highest public rating?
Actively Traded Forecasting Questions Last Week

What will be the Bitcoin / US Dollar exchange rate at the end of April 2014?

Where will Malaysian Air Flight MH 370 be found (extended version)?

How many mobile wireless devices in the U.S. will the FCC report as connected to the internet for the end of last year?
Make a forecast on one of the questions ending soon!
SciCast is based on the idea that the collective wisdom of an informed and diverse group is often a better predictor than the judgment of a single expert. 
 

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