This Week on SciCast
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This Week at SciCast

News from one of the largest science and technology focused collaborative forecasting efforts, ever.

Welcome to the first weekly update. In this issue:

  • Actively Traded Forecasting Questions Last Week
  • New Forecasting Questions This Week
  • Movers and Shakers 
  • Q&A with a Top SciCast Forecaster

Want to learn more about how SciCast works? Click here. And, if you really want to dig in, try the bibliography.

Actively Traded Forecasting Questions Last Week

Will Bitcoin be accepted at online retailer, Amazon, by March 31, 2014?
(Resolved as false.)

What percent of managed honey bee colonies in the US will be lost during the 2013-2014 winter?

Series of questions about Malaysian Flight #MH370
New Forecasting Questions This Week

When will the mobile app, Secret, be made available on Android devices?

When will 3D printing Oreo technology become readily available to the public?

Will a breathalyzer for measuring blood sugar be commercially available by the end of 2016?

Movers & Shakers

Will the Mars Curiosity Rover discover organic matter on Mars by September 1, 2014?

Will there be a lab-confirmed case of the coronavirus Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS or MERS-COV) identified in the United States by 1 June 2014?

Will the June 2014 TOP500 rankings announce that the performance of the #1 ranked supercomputer has exceeded 50 million Gflops/s?

Q & A with a Top SciCast Forecaster, BENTHINKIN

BENTHINKIN is #2 on the Leaderboard.

Q: What are your research interests or current projects?

A: I'm interested in games, strategy, cognitive psychology, and philosophy of science. I don't currently have any active research projects.

Q: When you're not working your way up the leaderboard, what do you do with your time?

A: I have some free time before I start full-time as a student at Dev Bootcamp, at which point I may disappear from SciCast for a little while. My last job was in management consulting.

Q: What do you enjoy about making forecasts on SciCast?

A: I find it's a great way to learn about new topics. In trying to find profitable edits, I need to research or analyze information, and pretty quickly acquire some basic expertise. I'm also a pretty competitive person, so I get jazzed about the idea of outsmarting people, especially HAL9000 (just kidding Hal).

Q: Do you plan to use the data for your own research?

A: Possibly. I'm definitely interested in the inner workings of prediction markets. For now I'm enjoying just being a user.

Q: Anything you'd like to add?

A: Just want to say thanks to all the folks at SciCast for making this happen, and please feel free to reach out if there's anything else I can do to help.
SciCast is based on the idea that the collective wisdom of an informed and diverse group is often a better predictor than the judgment of a single expert. 

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